by BERNARD CHIKETO
AN INTERESTING thing happened on the way to Zimbabwe’s tourism recovery. When Dr. George Manyaya, the new chief executive of the Zimbabwe Tourism Authority (ZTA), called for a registration blitz of operators, he expected to tidy up the books.
What he found instead was a pile of undocumented investment. The result: a sudden, belated addition of $12.6m to the sector’s investment tally in the first quarter of 2026.
That sum, roughly equivalent to 5% of quarterly tourism receipts, had simply been hiding in plain sight.
The blitz, launched shortly after Dr. Manyaya took the helm, was designed to regularise facilities that had never quite got round to formalising their status.
It worked.
But it also revealed something less comforting: for years, a chunk of tourism investment had been invisible to regulators, and thus absent from planning, promotion and policy.
The newly visible $12.6m is a welcome boost, but it is also a quiet indictment of past oversight.
Arrivals up, but not all are equal
Happily, for Dr. Manyaya, the rest of the first-quarter report makes for better reading.
International tourist arrivals rose by 11% to 384,515, while receipts climbed 14% to $251m. Domestic trips jumped by 35% to an estimated 2.62m, suggesting that Zimbabweans are rediscovering their own country—partly for religious travel, study trips and visiting friends and relatives as well as for leisure.
Yet beneath the headline numbers, the geography of demand is shifting.
Africa still dominates, accounting for 75% of arrivals. But overseas markets, though smaller, are growing faster: up 16% compared with 9% from within Africa.
That matters because long-haul visitors spend more. Their share of total arrivals edged up from 24% to 25%. Not a revolution, but a useful tilt.
Hotels are also filling up.
National average room occupancy ticked up from 37% to 38%.
But that aggregate hides wild regional differences. Manicaland and Mashonaland East staged proper recoveries; Mashonaland Central and Matabeleland South went backwards.
Harare and Bulawayo, the two big cities, remain above the national average but lost ground compared with 2025.
The recovery is real, but lumpy.
Then came Iran
Just as the first quarter was closing, geopolitics intervened. The ZTA calls it the “Iran War Effect”: route disruptions, spiking fuel costs, and a 12% drop in inbound tourism in March alone.
The shock hit all source markets, but overseas ones rattled hardest. Long-haul travel, already sensitive to fuel prices, is now also contending with rerouted flights and nervous passengers.
The ZTA’s own short-term outlook is sober.
If fuel costs stay high and flight disruptions persist, overseas arrivals could stagnate. African regional travel, being less dependent on long-haul connections, may offset some of the damage. But not all.
What to do about it
The report offers two sensible recommendations.
First, Zimbabwe should reduce its reliance on distant overseas markets by pushing regional African tourism more aggressively. That market proved more stable in March’s turbulence.
Second, develop shock-resilient tour packages—all-inclusive overland or rail-based itineraries that are less vulnerable to volatile airfares.
The medium-term picture is brighter.
Zimbabwe’s strong start to the year, its improved air connectivity, and its recent accolades—Forbes as a top destination in 2025, “Destination of the Year – Natural Wonders” at ITB Berlin 2026—provide a solid platform.
Once geopolitical tensions ease, the rebound could be vigorous. And the domestic market, now growing at 35%, offers a buffer that did not exist a decade ago.
For Dr. Manyaya, the immediate task is twofold: keep the registration blitz going to unearth more hidden investment, and nudge the sector towards African markets and overland tours.
The $12.6m was a lucky find. The next $12.6m will have to be earned.
Do you have a story to share? Email bchiketo@gmail.com